10 Bold Predictions For Precision Agriculture
The only certain is uncertainty, and the only predictable trend is unpredictability, to quote virtually every futurist’s hedge on his or her road to making bold predictions. Knowing all we know, we shouldn’t dare to make any bold predictions about the future. Except for the fact that we can’t help ourselves.
So, let’s go ahead and indulge. Over the next 10 pages are our best shot at 10 “BOLD” predictions for the precision agriculture market over the next 24 months.
1. Bayer-Monsanto combo will have ripple effects.
Photo credit: Market Watch photo Illustration.
The Bayer-Monsanto deal, assuming it comes to fruition as expected, brings together two leading basic manufacturers of seed and crop protection with hearty commitments to precision agriculture. Monsanto’s acquisitions and overtures about the importance it puts on improving agronomic decisions are well-documented. But Bayer has been quietly working on its own Digital Farming strategy over the past couple of years, and is fully committed to turning data into recommendations that impact use of its products. And Bayer has the desire and capacity to take these initiatives around the world.
When Monsanto purchased Climate Corp., the rush to bring weather information to growers heated up virutally overnight. Several companies now provide weather information from yesterday’s rainfall to full-on predictive modeling, but growers we talk to are flummoxed as to how to fully extract value from the data they receive. Few programs have lived up to the deliverables that have been promised, and it will likely be some time before growers get a fully functional and usable weather tool beyond the basics.
3. UAVs provide value, but it is frustratingly limited.
Farmers who’ve tested out UAVs (no names please, FAA is watching) have found some great one-off uses for them. From bare-soil imagery to assessing pest and weed infestation to weather-damaged crops and more, the drone is delivering some value. But many machine and software manufacturers are counting on the development of a business model by a service provider to the farmer, and that has proven elusive so far. For ag retailers and consultants who provide services beyond crop scouting, UAVs field scouting and imagery services present a daunting challenge as a bolt-on offering. The cost of maintaining the machines, the trained labor to fly the machines, the interpretation of data, and the integration of it into other services provided (not to mention liability insurance) all will continue to dog the market’s efforts to build a business from UAV service.
The recent downturn in the domestic ag economy, combined with increasing regulatory pressure is driving more consolidation among independent ag retailers and cooperatives. More territory under fewer organizations should lead to more consolidated data management initiatives, and many of the best-of-breed data management programs currently gaining traction feature the retailer and the cooperative at the center.
Regulatory focus on water quality and conservation as well as nutrient optimization is not going away anytime soon. One answer, while expensive, is the installation of drip irrigation onto fields that not only delivers water, but nutrients directly into the root zone of plants. Drip irrigation is installed using high end GPS, so it’s not an inexpensive proposition. But as regulations increase along with the cost of not complying, drip irrigation will become an increasingly practical water management proposition.
6. A clearer path to robotics emerges.
Mainstream autonomy in the form of assisted steering is essentially a decade old now, marked by the release of Outback Guidance’s price-breaking auto-guidance system in the early-mid 2000s. Straight-up unmanned robotics is making strides as well, as companies like Blue River Technology continue to find commercial hooks for its robot technology, among others. Over the next 24 months, technological capability improvements, reliable availability of wireless connectivity, and a wider realization of the real yield cost of soil compaction by massive field equipment will spur more interest and investment in smaller equipment that is more manageably controlled via robotics.
When everything from sensors to gauges to field equipment has the ability to report data back to a central location wirelessly, the possibilities for better management of crop production, as well as the entire farm operation, is almost endless. Big companies like John Deere and many startups are working on devices that collect and report data automatically for maximum accuracy and usability. In two years, leaders in IoT will be emerging and demonstrating clear benefit to agriculture.
As the digitization of the farm moves forward, farmers will be able to effectively manage more acreage on average. Based on research conducted by the PrecisionAg Institute, the current “sweet spot” for farmers finding benefits to technology is in the 2000 to 4000 acre range, which over the next two years we see emerging as the most common range for row crop farmers. The complexity of farming and the benefits of technology will allow farmers to stay viable and competitive without needing to scale up to the level of “megafarm.”
Food manufacturers and retailers continue to be aggressive in their pursuit of sustainable sourcing. Programs like Field To Market, while not perfect, are allowing the food production players to test their current production approaches and establish some baseline standards against which they can establish continuous improvement. Over the next 24 months, many more companies will be engaged in sustainability programs, and a clearer path to sustainable production in many crops will have emerged.
10. A game changing yield assessment tool emerges.
We write this as more of a challenge than a prediction. While yield monitors are ubiquitous on row crop harvesting machinery, only a fraction — as few as 1 in 10 — are calibrated and linked up with a GPS system to provide truly accurate data that can be compared year over year. Farmers need a simpler yield measurement tool that they will actually use.